LILLEY: Another poll signals a trend as Liberals fall and NDP rise
Brian Lilley
Published:
October 12, 2019
Updated:
October 12, 2019 8:45 PM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer. NICHOLAS KAMM / Gino Donato / Azin Ghaffari / Getty Images / Postmedia Network / Postmedia Calgary
Can we officially call this a trend now?
Over the last three days we have had three major polling firms release new surveys showing the Liberals falling below 30% in voter support and the NDP rising.
The numbers vary slightly but the trend line is clear, voters, especially younger voters, are turning towards Jagmeet Singh and away from Justin Trudeau.
Campaign Research is joining Angus Reid and DART in showing the NDP rise and Liberal fall.
A poll of 4,037 Canadians conducted from Oct. 8-10 shows the Conservatives leading nationally with 31% support, the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 19%. That compares to Campaign Research’s poll released a week ago that showed the Conservatives at 34%, Liberals at 32% and NDP at 6%.
Campaign Research noted a major uptick in Singh’s leadership approval numbers last week and pollster Nick Kouvalis said this poll shows the personal appeal of Singh is translating into voter support.
“This is a big jump and is having the most significant impact in British Columbia where there are 42 seats up for grabs, in Ontario where there are 121 seats up for grab and in Atlantic Canada, where there are 32 seats available,” Kouvalis said.
The polling also shows Singh and the NDP now lead among all parties with younger voters with 35% of voters aged 18-24 saying they would back the NDP if an election were held today. The Liberals take 24% of that age group, the Conservatives 20% and Greens 15%.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lead among voters 25-34 while Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives lead among all age groups above 35.
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When it comes to having voters sewn up, the polling shows that once again, Conservatives are more likely to have the more committed voters while NDP and Liberal voters are more open to changing their minds before voting day.
Kouvalis said if the trend continues the NDP is poised to win seats in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and across Atlantic Canada.
“With the sudden and astronomical rise that Jagmeet Singh has experienced, I wouldn’t count him nor the NDP out as replacing the Liberals and becoming the chief opponent to the Conservatives in the final stretch of this election campaign”, Kouvalis said.
That means one thing, just as Andrew Scheer has been getting more scrutiny from the media as it started to look like the Conservatives could replace the Liberals in forming a minority government, so too will Singh come under greater scrutiny.
With the debates over and the parties all having released their platforms, the focus will be intense on past statements, the cost of promises and what each party will bring to the table in what is surely to be a post-election minority Parliament.
As for the Liberals, the drop for Trudeau and rise of Singh couldn’t come at a worse time. Momentum is a hard thing to stop and Singh has momentum. We can expect the Liberals to lash out at both the NDP and Conservatives in an attempt to save seats and power.
We’ve already seen the Liberals say if the Conservatives win the most seats they will be kept in power by the separatist Bloc Quebecois. This week we can expect them to tell voters considering the NDP that a vote for Singh is a vote for Scheer.
The saying is that a week is a long time in politics. But will it be long enough for the Liberals to stop their free fall?
blilley@postmedia.com
http://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...signals-a-trend-as-liberals-fall-and-ndp-rise
Brian Lilley
Published:
October 12, 2019
Updated:
October 12, 2019 8:45 PM EDT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer. NICHOLAS KAMM / Gino Donato / Azin Ghaffari / Getty Images / Postmedia Network / Postmedia Calgary
Can we officially call this a trend now?
Over the last three days we have had three major polling firms release new surveys showing the Liberals falling below 30% in voter support and the NDP rising.
The numbers vary slightly but the trend line is clear, voters, especially younger voters, are turning towards Jagmeet Singh and away from Justin Trudeau.
Campaign Research is joining Angus Reid and DART in showing the NDP rise and Liberal fall.
A poll of 4,037 Canadians conducted from Oct. 8-10 shows the Conservatives leading nationally with 31% support, the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 19%. That compares to Campaign Research’s poll released a week ago that showed the Conservatives at 34%, Liberals at 32% and NDP at 6%.
Campaign Research noted a major uptick in Singh’s leadership approval numbers last week and pollster Nick Kouvalis said this poll shows the personal appeal of Singh is translating into voter support.
“This is a big jump and is having the most significant impact in British Columbia where there are 42 seats up for grabs, in Ontario where there are 121 seats up for grab and in Atlantic Canada, where there are 32 seats available,” Kouvalis said.
The polling also shows Singh and the NDP now lead among all parties with younger voters with 35% of voters aged 18-24 saying they would back the NDP if an election were held today. The Liberals take 24% of that age group, the Conservatives 20% and Greens 15%.
Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lead among voters 25-34 while Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives lead among all age groups above 35.
LILLEY: CBC lawsuit against Conservatives looks like move to protect Trudeau Liberals
FUREY: The land is strong for now – but Canada can’t withstand four more years of Justin Trudeau
GOLDSTEIN: The fiscal follies of Justin Trudeau
When it comes to having voters sewn up, the polling shows that once again, Conservatives are more likely to have the more committed voters while NDP and Liberal voters are more open to changing their minds before voting day.
Kouvalis said if the trend continues the NDP is poised to win seats in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and across Atlantic Canada.
“With the sudden and astronomical rise that Jagmeet Singh has experienced, I wouldn’t count him nor the NDP out as replacing the Liberals and becoming the chief opponent to the Conservatives in the final stretch of this election campaign”, Kouvalis said.
That means one thing, just as Andrew Scheer has been getting more scrutiny from the media as it started to look like the Conservatives could replace the Liberals in forming a minority government, so too will Singh come under greater scrutiny.
With the debates over and the parties all having released their platforms, the focus will be intense on past statements, the cost of promises and what each party will bring to the table in what is surely to be a post-election minority Parliament.
As for the Liberals, the drop for Trudeau and rise of Singh couldn’t come at a worse time. Momentum is a hard thing to stop and Singh has momentum. We can expect the Liberals to lash out at both the NDP and Conservatives in an attempt to save seats and power.
We’ve already seen the Liberals say if the Conservatives win the most seats they will be kept in power by the separatist Bloc Quebecois. This week we can expect them to tell voters considering the NDP that a vote for Singh is a vote for Scheer.
The saying is that a week is a long time in politics. But will it be long enough for the Liberals to stop their free fall?
blilley@postmedia.com
http://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...signals-a-trend-as-liberals-fall-and-ndp-rise
enette Wilford![jagmeet_singh_versace-e1701104482970[1].jpg](https://forums.canadiancontent.net/data/attachments/18/18436-e65fe401dab9a73e3d12862672b2c52a.jpg "jagmeet_singh_versace-e1701104482970[1].jpg")
